Author Topic: The end of Petrol cars has started (Read 43226 times)

Serious · **Reply #15 on:** December 08, 2020, 15:06:49 PM

Re: The end of Petrol cars has started

Reply #15 on: December 08, 2020, 15:06:49 PM

Quote from: neXus on December 08, 2020, 03:26:46 AM

In any case this will increase dramatically.

The pushback is and will be interesting. Car dealerships in the US for example are a kind of Mafia organisation that have more pull and say than they actually should and been making Tesla's life very difficult over there. They have even gone out their way to try and stop Tesla renting or buying plots of land for their super stations and charging port locations for all manner of reasons, even though most fail here they do it just to cause hassle.

Fuel companies I am sure in the background are talking or trying to work out what they do but I think have little to nothing to be able to counter the growing boom here.

The thing for me is battery tech still needs to improve. Power consumption of chips, software that optimises everything from how the battery is used to how it is charged are all things these days etching out battery perfomance but the tech itself is not keeping pace with other tech. Someone really needs to pump more and try more to improve it a lot and get all these things being developed into reality sooner than later.

Tesla cars require a big investment at the start, even if cheaper long term. You also have to add in that there are lots of other car companies out there, along with the petrol companies who to a large extent see Tesla and other electric cars as threatening their industry, so not just car dealerships that often have exclusive contracts in their area. They cannot expect them to all bend over backwards for Elon Musk. A lot of the issue is the number of charging stations and how long it takes to charge up.

Solar electricity in sunnier climates has dropped radically to the point that it's cheaper for countries in Arabia to use than oil or gas. Batteries are still being developed, but that is going at a frantic pace. Then there is the issue of lithium and cobalt shortages likely to start in the next couple of years. You also have supercapacitors, not as weight efficient but able to dump their entire charge in seconds and have a lifetime of many decades, they are already being put in some cars instead of batteries.

M3ta7h3ad · **Reply #16 on:** December 08, 2020, 17:37:55 PM

Re: The end of Petrol cars has started

Reply #16 on: December 08, 2020, 17:37:55 PM

Ask anyone who owns a tesla what life is like on a bank holiday weekend travelling to the south west of the country.

Every single tesla supercharger stall, occupied... everywhere.

Every single rapid charger at the service station, occupied... everywhere.

We've 9 years, to try and put in place a charging infrastructure that can support a mass migration to electric vehicles. Not only have we got to weigh up the massive environmental impact this has, but also being able to service such capability from the national grid as is.

Colour me a sceptic but I don't see that happening. We still struggle with loads on the grid from advertisement breaks on TV despite the mass uptake of on-demand video. We will almost certainly not be in a position where the national grid can cope with the load a mass move towards electric vehicles will bring.

Hinkley Point C has been under construction since 2008, and is intended to replace the load of 2 decommissioned reactors at the same location (1 decommissioned already, the other to come at some point) yet is not expected to be online until 2025.

If the UK Gov is serious about this, we need to be breaking ground on new power generation capability now.

Clock'd 0Ne · **Reply #17 on:** December 08, 2020, 18:06:28 PM

Re: The end of Petrol cars has started

Reply #17 on: December 08, 2020, 18:06:28 PM

Chris Harris did an interview with some chap from the National Grid (who happens to be a petrol head) and he was pretty certain they will be fine and there is always plenty of plans in place to handle and spread the loads - especially with many people opting to charge over night.

https://www.topgear.com/videos/chris-harris/there-enough-juice-harris-talks-evs-national-grids-graeme-cooper

neXus · **Reply #18 on:** December 09, 2020, 00:02:13 AM

Re: The end of Petrol cars has started

Reply #18 on: December 09, 2020, 00:02:13 AM

Quote from: Clock'd 0Ne on December 08, 2020, 06:24:35 AM

Quote from: neXus on December 07, 2020, 22:58:16 PM
Classic cars and what are declared as classic cars will be fine I think. They may introduce some running restrictions due to emissions in like 50, 60, 70+ years and Fuel prices will keep going up and up as the use declines but you can still run them.
It will be more your 20 year old Ford that will likely be banned from roads

The inference is as long as cars are within the moving window of historical status they won't be affected at all. A London to LA flight produces more CO2 in that single trip than than a lot of classic cars produce in a whole year, so there is no need to go chasing after them. What was suggested in the video though is that they may not shift the window as far as 2000 because some early dirty diesels could creep into the fold then.

Well the whole Government blaming us for global warming when industry is the ultimate evil here is another story.
That is a massive annoyance for me with us all globally paying x tax or something in regard to the environment and while we are technically doing our part 90% of the problem is not from us norm's. Most of it is China and most of it is industrial and it is them that needs to sort it.

On that though big

to the UK though for all the renewable energy work because its up there these days, no one really talks about it but you keep seeing news stories of days where the whole country has managed just on the renewable energy alone.

Serious · **Reply #19 on:** December 09, 2020, 17:51:24 PM

Re: The end of Petrol cars has started

Reply #19 on: December 09, 2020, 17:51:24 PM

UK gov not responsible for green energy effort.

https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/unions-slam-appalling-uk-green-jobs-drop-after-wind-and-solar-subsidy-cuts/2-1-740032

matt5cott · **Reply #20 on:** December 10, 2020, 10:55:14 AM

Re: The end of Petrol cars has started

Reply #20 on: December 10, 2020, 10:55:14 AM

Quote from: Clock'd 0Ne on December 07, 2020, 08:33:01 AM

Here's a great video which puts some of this into perspective for the next decade, not just for classic cars (30 minute watch):

Excellent vid, I'm looking at another car soon (not to replace mine) it was going to be petrol anyway, but that video gave 2 pirate thumbs up to this decision

Quote from: neXus on December 09, 2020, 00:02:13 AM

Well the whole Government blaming us for global warming when industry is the ultimate evil here is another story.
That is a massive annoyance for me with us all globally paying x tax or something in regard to the environment and while we are technically doing our part 90% of the problem is not from us norm's. Most of it is China and most of it is industrial and it is them that needs to sort it.

On that though big to the UK though for all the renewable energy work because its up there these days, no one really talks about it but you keep seeing news stories of days where the whole country has managed just on the renewable energy alone.

Well said, industry always seems to avoid being put under the microscope, instead Ken and Tracey get shamed for taking 2 weeks in Tenerife like they're some kind of eco-terrorists!

Clock'd 0Ne · **Reply #21 on:** December 10, 2020, 13:29:42 PM

Re: The end of Petrol cars has started

Reply #21 on: December 10, 2020, 13:29:42 PM

Quote from: matt5cott on December 10, 2020, 10:55:14 AM

Excellent vid, I'm looking at another car soon (not to replace mine) it was going to be petrol anyway, but that video gave 2 pirate thumbs up to this decision

I'm very curious what this is going to be now

soopahfly · **Reply #22 on:** February 09, 2021, 10:58:39 AM

Re: The end of Petrol cars has started

Reply #22 on: February 09, 2021, 10:58:39 AM

Is it though? It all seems very short sighted, and I dare say the date will get pushed and pushed. I don't disagree that burning dinosaurs has to come to an end, but in a lot of cases, the technology just isn't there yet.
Cars, sure. Latest EV's will do the same range as your average petrol car on a tank. I'm sure on an average trip that needs you to get out and fill up another tank for one leg of the journey, you'd be welcoming a stop off to stretch your legs. Top off the car while you empty yourself and get something to eat. Not much of a problem. Expensive though for what they are.
Vans, meh, not really there yet. Range isn't very good compared to what they are needing to do. and will rely on a range extender. Taking up load space.
Busses, nope, not a chance, same as trucks.
I can see merit in batteries being in the trailer for trucks, and have a smaller one in the cab. Swap trailer at the destination for a fresh battery. A lot are plugged in anyway for extra refridgerated storage.

One thing that's causing us some issue at the moment is a potential camper van purchase. The wife isn't happy with diesel and the option for petrol is incredibly limited.
She's keen on Electric, but what she wants doesn't exist. The range on new vans is poor vs a diesel van, half the places you may want to go will be away from charging points (can't use site hook up as they are usually limited to 10amp, and you need to run your van off it too)

There doesn't seem to be much progression from what I can see.

Clock'd 0Ne · **Reply #23 on:** February 09, 2021, 11:18:25 AM

Re: The end of Petrol cars has started

Reply #23 on: February 09, 2021, 11:18:25 AM

You need to give it a few more years unfortunately to get the kind of vehicle you're after. Even in the space of the last year announcements have been made for more powerful batteries with twice the range across a broad number of marques, not just the likes of Tesla. Give it another 5 years you might start to see more realistic options appearing for people that aren't low mileage city dwellers or buying at the luxury price end where performance and range are already significant.

I reckon there isn't much further they will go with charger output as how fast do you really need to charge if you have the range and efficiency to begin with? It becomes detrimental to the battery after a point. Anything over 7kW isn't suitable for home installation anyway unless you want to spend thousands on a three phase system. Hopefully my home wall charger won't be sunset by some new charger type either for that reason.

knighty · **Reply #24 on:** February 09, 2021, 16:25:48 PM

Re: The end of Petrol cars has started

Reply #24 on: February 09, 2021, 16:25:48 PM

I look at electric vans all the time, electric transit vans have a real world range of about 80 miles :-o

Serious · **Reply #25 on:** February 10, 2021, 01:12:54 AM

Re: The end of Petrol cars has started

Reply #25 on: February 10, 2021, 01:12:54 AM

I am sure that for some companies 80 miles is fine, especially in places like central London. Amazon is already buying them for some areas.

With new batteries and other options coming out the range should get larger over time.

What I would like to see is full battery packs that can be pulled out and pushed in to a different van. That would mean very fast change around and the batteries can be left to charge when needed.

soopahfly · **Reply #26 on:** February 10, 2021, 09:20:13 AM

Re: The end of Petrol cars has started

Reply #26 on: February 10, 2021, 09:20:13 AM

Quote from: Serious on February 10, 2021, 01:12:54 AM

I am sure that for some companies 80 miles is fine, especially in places like central London. Amazon is already buying them for some areas.

With new batteries and other options coming out the range should get larger over time.

What I would like to see is full battery packs that can be pulled out and pushed in to a different van. That would mean very fast change around and the batteries can be left to charge when needed.

Renault had a system like that at first, and you had service stations that you drove onto and a robot removed the battery underneath and replaced it.
Didn't get very far with development though.

Battery tech will come, but at the moment for the longer distance use cases it's not ready. And I imagine it won't be for another 10 years or so.
Cars are different. The range is fine, the charging speed is mostly fine. The cost is not.
Also, £0 ved needs to go too. It's just another perk of being rich. If you can afford one of these fancy electric cars, you can afford to pay VED.
It'll happen, once the government starts losing out on revenue.

Clock'd 0Ne · **Reply #27 on:** February 10, 2021, 10:24:16 AM

Re: The end of Petrol cars has started

Reply #27 on: February 10, 2021, 10:24:16 AM

Quote from: soopahfly on February 10, 2021, 09:20:13 AM

Also, £0 ved needs to go too. It's just another perk of being rich. If you can afford one of these fancy electric cars, you can afford to pay VED.
It'll happen, once the government starts losing out on revenue.

The issue there is that the only justifiable reason for VED being so high is based on emissions, so they couldn't possibly remove it until petrol and diesel are forced to be no longer options. It won't be retrospective either if they do, so I think £0 VED is going to be around for a long time. Which is good news when you're looking to buy a second hand EV in 5-10 years time and you don't have to balk at the silly VED rates. There's enough people like me leasing electric that 2nd hand prices are going to start to drop, prices are already starting to look attractive on cars a few years old.

Serious · **Reply #28 on:** February 13, 2021, 17:56:18 PM

Re: The end of Petrol cars has started

Reply #28 on: February 13, 2021, 17:56:18 PM

Quote from: soopahfly on February 10, 2021, 09:20:13 AM

Renault had a system like that at first, and you had service stations that you drove onto and a robot removed the battery underneath and replaced it.
Didn't get very far with development though.

One of the first electric bus companies had the idea of removable battery packs that were recharged in this way so the bus could keep going. Unfortunately, despite the buses being widely praised, the company owner was a scammer and could not see past his tendency for committing fraud.

New versions have ultracapacitors which can be charged in seconds and also allow storage of regenerative energy from braking. That opens the option of charging stations at bus stops to keep it topped up. It looks like Tesla is combining capacitors with batteries too, which will reduce "wear" on the batteries considerably and might give a near instant charge option to give a few miles range.

neXus · **Reply #29 on:** February 15, 2021, 22:36:58 PM

Re: The end of Petrol cars has started

Reply #29 on: February 15, 2021, 22:36:58 PM

Quote from: soopahfly on February 09, 2021, 10:58:39 AM

Is it though? It all seems very short sighted, and I dare say the date will get pushed and pushed. I don't disagree that burning dinosaurs has to come to an end, but in a lot of cases, the technology just isn't there yet.
Cars, sure. Latest EV's will do the same range as your average petrol car on a tank. I'm sure on an average trip that needs you to get out and fill up another tank for one leg of the journey, you'd be welcoming a stop off to stretch your legs. Top off the car while you empty yourself and get something to eat. Not much of a problem. Expensive though for what they are.
Vans, meh, not really there yet. Range isn't very good compared to what they are needing to do. and will rely on a range extender. Taking up load space.
Busses, nope, not a chance, same as trucks.
I can see merit in batteries being in the trailer for trucks, and have a smaller one in the cab. Swap trailer at the destination for a fresh battery. A lot are plugged in anyway for extra refridgerated storage.

One thing that's causing us some issue at the moment is a potential camper van purchase. The wife isn't happy with diesel and the option for petrol is incredibly limited.
She's keen on Electric, but what she wants doesn't exist. The range on new vans is poor vs a diesel van, half the places you may want to go will be away from charging points (can't use site hook up as they are usually limited to 10amp, and you need to run your van off it too)

There doesn't seem to be much progression from what I can see.

We have electric busses starting to replace other busses by the end of the year here in Sydney with a complete role out by 2030 across greater Sydney as the plan. COVID is noted to be delaying all this but busses over here at least will happen soon.

News:

Author Topic: The end of Petrol cars has started (Read 43226 times)