Author Topic: The end of Petrol cars has started  (Read 3020 times)

  • Offline neXus

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The end of Petrol cars has started
on: December 04, 2020, 02:49:21 AM
Not sure how everyone feels on this but the road to end Petrol cars has really kicked off this year.


- Japan is look set to end all petrol car sales by 2030.
- The UK has already announced similar plans
- New Zealand has announced similar plans and all government vehicles have to be electric starting from basically now
- Australia is also making moves
- Certain states in the US are or are going to initiate similar plans 


- Electric cars are on the rise, there are more companies making them and there are more stations for them popping up nearly everywhere.
- Many companies are using some from of tech from the Tesla opened up patents to facilitate the rise.


What are your thoughts?


For me, I know a lot of petrol heads will be angry about it but I am all for this change to finally happen. I just wonder what the fuel companies and old school motor companies will do, they have been deliberately holding back technology in this area for years. Over the years I am sure you all have heard the stories, some fact, some rumour in regard to technologies developed by small teams or individuals who have had things destroyed, threats and so on. I think there was a UK doco on that matter some years ago which was good.


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  • Offline Clock'd 0Ne

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Re: The end of Petrol cars has started
Reply #1 on: December 04, 2020, 08:47:41 AM
I think banning production of new cars is sensible, as long as people can still enjoy what will be 'classic' cars still I don't have a problem, the numbers will be low and dwindling as electric car performance already destroys most cars and the only ones that will have longevity are real driving enthusiast cars with beautiful sounding V6/V8/V10 engines.

Having children changes your perspective on things. I no longer think it's acceptable for them to breathe in sh*te air constantly and that is first and foremost why I welcome the change. Not that I genuinely thought it was fine before but it's 'I'm alright, Jack' mentality. There are added benefits of reduced costs as well. I'm already driving round in a Prius so I'm halfway there, our next family car will be full electric one way or the other. One day I'll buy a nice V6/V8 weekend car perhaps.
Last Edit: December 04, 2020, 08:49:21 AM by Clock'd 0Ne #187;

  • Offline matt5cott

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Re: The end of Petrol cars has started
Reply #2 on: December 04, 2020, 09:31:19 AM
Governments etc will push for this but I have the same serious reservations I've always had, batteries even today are still not the clean saviours they're often touted as, yes it offsets what's coming out the back to a degree and yes you can power them with probably cleaner energy off the grid, it's the battery packs being stuffed with rare earth minerals and flown around the world to be assembled bit that raises my eyebrow.

We have a finance it / build em cheap /chuck em away culture, battery cars don't appear to have changed this, if people are replacing them as often as they change their pants it somewhat offsets any "gains" And there's the fact that cells don't last forever, if you've got to replace them at ~7 years the car becomes beyond economical repair in many cases. This is why I won't buy a hybrid as it's a ticking time bomb and I keep my cars long term.


2030 is probably do-able, but if by then the technology has already changed drastically and the issues above are resolved (note I've not even included range as the newer stuff already is pretty good) Then the market will have pushed this way naturally anyway, why does the government need to mandate this :dunno: ::) Sticking their oar in again ::) :lol:
Last Edit: December 04, 2020, 09:33:18 AM by matt5cott #187;

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  • Offline Clock'd 0Ne

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Re: The end of Petrol cars has started
Reply #3 on: December 04, 2020, 09:57:44 AM
I agree the govt didn't need to mandate it, I don't think it's even sticking their oar for any reason other than it's just a good piece to soundbite essentially; get the hippies on board :lol:

I don't think the battery issue with degradation is as bad as has been made out. My Prius is from 2005 and has done 120k, the battery is still reporting excellent health and seems good as new. They are also figuring out a way to both recycle them for home energy storage and move away from using rare earth metals in their production.

It's another early adoption thing where the tech will only improve with a market drive to do so. Tesla has spunked so much money into that its now getting traction, so whether you like Musk and the cars or not its irrefutable that he's moved us forward leaps and bounds.

Hydrogen is the other tech that will come into play too, Toyota are really pushing it as its really the only viable option for heavy industry.

  • Offline Serious

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Re: The end of Petrol cars has started
Reply #4 on: December 04, 2020, 17:30:33 PM
It is still going to take time, not all people are going to find switching as easy as might be thought. Countries still need to ramp up electric supply and places where it can be sourced.

There needs to be a lot more battery production too. Easy for a country to say that this has to be done, far more difficult to actually do it.

Re: The end of Petrol cars has started
Reply #5 on: December 04, 2020, 19:16:31 PM
The 2030 ban was a ban on pure petrol and diesel cars, not hybrid, so for example the McLaren P1 would still be within the legislation *I think; didn't google much

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Re: The end of Petrol cars has started
Reply #6 on: December 05, 2020, 13:23:14 PM
The 2030 ban was a ban on pure petrol and diesel cars, not hybrid, so for example the McLaren P1 would still be within the legislation *I think; didn't google much

The ban is worded to allow sale of some hybrids in the UK, it does not specify which ones. You will still be allowed to drive a petrol or diesel after that point if capable and can afford the cost.

Only £4 billion has been allocated for the changeover by the government.That would be like taking a pee in an empty swimming pool and claiming it's full.

Then this is Boris the clown in charge, although for how long is debatable. I expect him to be ditched by the Tories early to mid next year when they will be trying to push any blame for covid and Brexit fails onto him.

  • Offline neXus

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Re: The end of Petrol cars has started
Reply #7 on: December 06, 2020, 23:48:55 PM
It is still going to take time, not all people are going to find switching as easy as might be thought. Countries still need to ramp up electric supply and places where it can be sourced.

There needs to be a lot more battery production too. Easy for a country to say that this has to be done, far more difficult to actually do it.
Electric car sales were over 50% of all new sales overall in Europe in the last two years.

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  • Offline Clock'd 0Ne

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Re: The end of Petrol cars has started
Reply #8 on: December 07, 2020, 08:33:01 AM
Here's a great video which puts some of this into perspective for the next decade, not just for classic cars (30 minute watch):


  • Offline Serious

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Re: The end of Petrol cars has started
Reply #9 on: December 07, 2020, 18:21:59 PM
It is still going to take time, not all people are going to find switching as easy as might be thought. Countries still need to ramp up electric supply and places where it can be sourced.

There needs to be a lot more battery production too. Easy for a country to say that this has to be done, far more difficult to actually do it.
Electric car sales were over 50% of all new sales overall in Europe in the last two years.

You absolutely sure of that? I mean the average seems to be a lot less than half. Even with all the hybrids you might barely get to 25%

"Registrations of electric cars in Europe jumped 57.4% in the first quarter of 2020, but still only accounted for 4.3% of total registrations."

https://insideevs.com/news/457575/europe-plugin-car-sales-october-2020/

  • Offline neXus

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Re: The end of Petrol cars has started
Reply #10 on: December 07, 2020, 22:56:45 PM
It is still going to take time, not all people are going to find switching as easy as might be thought. Countries still need to ramp up electric supply and places where it can be sourced.

There needs to be a lot more battery production too. Easy for a country to say that this has to be done, far more difficult to actually do it.
Electric car sales were over 50% of all new sales overall in Europe in the last two years.

You absolutely sure of that? I mean the average seems to be a lot less than half. Even with all the hybrids you might barely get to 25%

"Registrations of electric cars in Europe jumped 57.4% in the first quarter of 2020, but still only accounted for 4.3% of total registrations."

https://insideevs.com/news/457575/europe-plugin-car-sales-october-2020/


Sorry Yes, you are right - Registrations but it is 18% of sales.

  • Offline neXus

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Re: The end of Petrol cars has started
Reply #11 on: December 07, 2020, 22:58:16 PM
Here's a great video which puts some of this into perspective for the next decade, not just for classic cars (30 minute watch):

Classic cars and what are declared as classic cars will be fine I think. They may introduce some running restrictions due to emissions in like 50, 60, 70+ years and Fuel prices will keep going up and up as the use declines but you can still run them.
It will be more your 20 year old Ford that will likely be banned from roads

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Re: The end of Petrol cars has started
Reply #12 on: December 07, 2020, 23:42:07 PM
It is still going to take time, not all people are going to find switching as easy as might be thought. Countries still need to ramp up electric supply and places where it can be sourced.

There needs to be a lot more battery production too. Easy for a country to say that this has to be done, far more difficult to actually do it.
Electric car sales were over 50% of all new sales overall in Europe in the last two years.

You absolutely sure of that? I mean the average seems to be a lot less than half. Even with all the hybrids you might barely get to 25%

"Registrations of electric cars in Europe jumped 57.4% in the first quarter of 2020, but still only accounted for 4.3% of total registrations."

https://insideevs.com/news/457575/europe-plugin-car-sales-october-2020/


Sorry Yes, you are right - Registrations but it is 18% of sales.

accidentally putting a zero in is fine, I have done the same.

  • Offline neXus

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Re: The end of Petrol cars has started
Reply #13 on: December 08, 2020, 03:26:46 AM
It is still going to take time, not all people are going to find switching as easy as might be thought. Countries still need to ramp up electric supply and places where it can be sourced.

There needs to be a lot more battery production too. Easy for a country to say that this has to be done, far more difficult to actually do it.
Electric car sales were over 50% of all new sales overall in Europe in the last two years.

You absolutely sure of that? I mean the average seems to be a lot less than half. Even with all the hybrids you might barely get to 25%

"Registrations of electric cars in Europe jumped 57.4% in the first quarter of 2020, but still only accounted for 4.3% of total registrations."

https://insideevs.com/news/457575/europe-plugin-car-sales-october-2020/


Sorry Yes, you are right - Registrations but it is 18% of sales.

accidentally putting a zero in is fine, I have done the same.
I think it was more I read and miss-understood registrations vs sales.


In any case this will increase dramatically.

The pushback is and will be interesting. Car dealerships in the US for example are a kind of Mafia organisation that have more pull and say than they actually should and been making Tesla's life very difficult over there. They have even gone out their way to try and stop Tesla renting or buying plots of land for their super stations and charging port locations for all manner of reasons, even though most fail here they do it just to cause hassle.


Fuel companies I am sure in the background are talking or trying to work out what they do but I think have little to nothing to be able to counter the growing boom here.


The thing for me is battery tech still needs to improve. Power consumption of chips, software that optimises everything from how the battery is used to how it is charged are all things these days etching out battery perfomance but the tech itself is not keeping pace with other tech. Someone really needs to pump more and try more to improve it a lot and get all these things being developed into reality sooner than later.

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  • Offline Clock'd 0Ne

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Re: The end of Petrol cars has started
Reply #14 on: December 08, 2020, 06:24:35 AM
Classic cars and what are declared as classic cars will be fine I think. They may introduce some running restrictions due to emissions in like 50, 60, 70+ years and Fuel prices will keep going up and up as the use declines but you can still run them.
It will be more your 20 year old Ford that will likely be banned from roads

The inference is as long as cars are within the moving window of historical status they won't be affected at all. A London to LA flight produces more CO2 in that single trip than than a lot of classic cars produce in a whole year, so there is no need to go chasing after them. What was suggested in the video though is that they may not shift the window as far as 2000 because some early dirty diesels could creep into the fold then.

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