What I dont get is all the huff and blow over it.
Phone technology turns over FAST. VERY FAST.
The iphone is already out of date. Come April next year, its virtually a mk1 motorola rzr.
Apple are expecting to get a few years out of this thing. I dont see how. This time next year every other cheap phone will have a similar interface. WM6 is still in ints infancy, but it has third party support, big time.
WM6 devices ftw.
Im expecting the iPhone/iTouch to integrate with Apple TV in about 6-12 months. This will give downloadable video content through iTunes to iPhones. I think itll be doing it in a mobile version of the H264 format. I also think this is related somehow to googles aquisition of youtube and it shifting every youtube video across to the H264 format.
Then Im expecting google to take over the newly opened wireless frequencies globally in about 24 months. Theyre already bidding and likely going to gain a total monopoly on the best frequency for wireless access. At this point theyll announce that apple and google have gone into partnership to produce the next generation of phones which are totally wireless braodband enabled and they are now no longer dependant upong the traditional carriers/networks.
Over the next 12 months Id expect all phone calls to shift onto the new wireless frequency band and global wireless to be provided free of charge through the google network on apple phones. Theyll change the financial model of obile phones to service charges not call costs (much like the way we now pay for a months internet not how long were on the phone).
With phone call and data costs now essentially free the handset cost of iPhones will drop through the floor. Other carriers ill be charged a premium to use the google phone backbone which will mean they cannot match the google/iPhone price and have to go specialist or fail.
While the other companies fail the google OS and apple OSs will probably merge as they share a unix base. At a guess this will use virtualization to allow a seemless mix between a secure Apple OS for media content and the phone functions and the open Google OS which can be made totally expandable without destroying apples iTunes revenue stream for content.
As soon as the media content is secure Im expecting them to discover they can stream HD using the broadband frequency spectrum google has bought. (2-3 years in). As Verizon stepped aside to let google buy the frequencies alone Im thinking they need to reemerge somewhere for their cut. Itll probably be around here I guess with the introduction of MPEG7. Verizon becomes responsible for streaming network management? Or possibly running the wireless backbone for (or as part of) google while google releases a ton of tools that allow searching of video data using the MPEG7 markup information and advertising within the MPEG7 data so you can buy what you see on screen/access premium content.
At this stage everyone is using googles carrier network because nothing else can compete. The partnership with apple (the two companies share directors already) means the iPhone handset will totally dominate the phone market in various forms. And they suddenly have everyone walking round with media players, an always on broadband link to those media players, and a fixed portal to their media content through iTunes. They make the money back by charging movie companies/advertisers/braodcasters to stream data over the network or place links in the MPEG7 streams. Then the whole cost is passed on to the broadcasters/advertisers making phones cheaper still and the partnerships lead over the others insurmountable.
I cant see any way the other companies can stop this if apple and google have had talks. If theyve had this chat (which they must have tbh) then from the moment google gets the wireless spectrum and apple launch a phone which can place calls over a wireless network its pretty much game over.
Why do I think this?
Apple TV seems to be an underdeveloped product. The iPhone and iTouch have way less memory than is needed which implies to me theyre going to be dummy terminals not content storage devices. Google and Apple share boards of directors now. Google is taking the newly opened up wireless frequencies. Apple and google are both switching all of their content to H264 which can be readily converted into mobile streaming. Apple hates the fact they have to use traditional carriers. Apple didnt put wireless in the phones yet when they could have easily which implies thats the next one when they announce a wireless phone. Apple have made their OS totally platform independent so it can be virtualized. Google is about to launch an open phone OS which is bound to be able to run other OSs in parallel. Apple locked their OS down despite outcrys. Both companies have invested heavily in media content distribution.
Apple wants to dominate hardware markets and push its iTunes distribution. This gives them total dominance of the mobile handset market and content distribution.
Google want to be the number one portal for all data services and keep earning money through advertising only. By being the major phone carrier they do the first and selling MPEG7 tags on content which can potentiall reach everyone they get their advertising revenue.
Id put serious money theres a 3 year plan to totally take over the phone networks and give free handsets with contracts. A 5 year plan to switch the whole ball game to content distribution and tv.
