Is North Korea Being stupid?

At around 2:30 AM Parts of Asia felt an Earthquake measuring 4 odd on the rictar scale.
NK Said at this time they tested  A Nukelear Weapon Underground.
Details can be found here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/6033457.stm

Now what on earth are they are doing, they are just asking for trouble are they not? Testing misiles and then a Nuke is crazy right?

What are they going to do with it, Are they finally going to get rid of The South, Japan?

But wait, India were told there would be big problems and threats made if they tested, they did, nothing happened. Isreal Did but deny it, the right people know they did but nothing happened. Pakistan did and they were warned not to yet nothing happened.

So will anything now? Probably not.

N K Have been warned about things just like Iraq All those years ago and Iran now, The countries that did not have a nuke has seen Iraq get the US treatment and they are very keen to have a go at Iran Once they are out of Iraq and dont like N K so N Kmay think that with nukes they wont even dare.
However their best buddy China are not happy either.

Could have an arms race? Some issues for many years to come?
A nuklear attack on a country occur?
War?
Nothing?

I think if I was North Korea Id be working flat out on a launchable nuclear solution.  Purely on the basis they think theyre about to be invaded/attacked by the rest of the world and theyre probably right.

Looks like theyve pissed off China doing this though which may be a fundamental mistake as theyre about the only country protecting them at the moment.

Quote from: SteveFI think if I was North Korea Id be working flat out on a launchable nuclear solution.  Purely on the basis they think theyre about to be invaded/attacked by the rest of the world and theyre probably right.

Looks like theyve pissed off China doing this though which may be a fundamental mistake as theyre about the only country protecting them at the moment.

Im right in saying though they have a HUUUGE Army so any invasion would be very very bloody, even without nukes it would be hard to remove the idiots in power.

2.25 Million nexus, Peoples libertaion army, that is the current active force. thats the ground force, navy & air force.   Largest army in terms of shear man power.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_total_troops

Heard about this morning leaving for work.  The threat does not come directly from North Korea imho, it comes from how the other major nuclear players react to it.

Take japan for example, a key nuclear player and currently an unmilitarised nation, it could end up taking up arms again despite their attitude of honouring peace.  Its east asia s stability that is under threat the most from the current crisis.  Then of course there is the USA pushing the UN to take action.

I wouldnt worry about a warhead falling on us any time soon, N korea have no proven effective delivery method let alone on a continental range and hardly have us as part of their agenda.  Its also highly unlikely that they have developed a warhead small enough to be effectively used in an ICBM or less.  

Something will happen well before that happens.  I think by the sounds of things Kim Jong-il and their goverment are tired of politics and want to move on and ignore the nuclear nations and the UN.

They are trying to play off Russia and China against the US, its a dangerous path to take.

Quote from: Cypher2.25 Million nexus, Peoples libertaion army, that is the current active force. thats the ground force, navy & air force.   Largest army in terms of shear man power.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_total_troops

Heard about this morning leaving for work.  The threat does not come directly from North Korea imho, it comes from how the other major nuclear players react to it.

Take japan for example, a key nuclear player and currently an unmilitarised nation, it could end up taking up arms again despite their attitude of honouring peace.  Its east asia s stability that is under threat the most from the current crisis.  Then of course there is the USA pushing the UN to take action.

I wouldnt worry about a warhead falling on us any time soon, N korea have no proven effective delivery method let alone on a continental range and hardly have us as part of their agenda.  Its also highly unlikely that they have developed a warhead small enough to be effectively used in an ICBM or less.  

Something will happen well before that happens.  I think by the sounds of things Kim Jong-il and their goverment are tired of politics and want to move on and ignore the nuclear nations and the UN.

Thought it was the 2nd man power wise with china 1.
Your wrong though about the effective launch abilities, they can reach Alaska So they are quite able.
They can reach Japan and taking key points there alone would cuase economic disaster as well as the loss to life, and more importantly they still hate South Korea and tbh I wont be supprised if they do a above ground "test" and just happern to be near south korea and the fallout just happern to spread and be directed to them at the very least.

I thought you were referring to china.  2.25 million active troops.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/2564241.stm

They could potentially hit alaska yes.  But as I said, they do not posses an effective long range delivery missile.

There is no proof that the taepdodong system is a reliable and accurate system, let alone with a warhead as extra ballast.  The scud is the only proven sytem, a mobile, quick an relatively accurate launch system, however only capable of small warheads.  It eastern asia that is at risk.

With any of the delivery methods it is extremly unlikely they have developed  a warhead that could both fit and work into a delivery system such as an ICBM.

Very few countries posses a true ICBM that will work almost certain accuracy and reliability.

2.5 million four foot tall underfed troops and a missile system that could barely make it from my house to the nearest strip mall. Ooooh, scary!


/me points and laughs.

Id say the problem is less likely to be what North Korea can do, and more likely to be what a conflict might escalate into if the big boys decide not to play nice anymore.

Quote from: maximusotter2.5 million four foot tall underfed troops and a missile system that could barely make it from my house to the nearest strip mall. Ooooh, scary!


/me points and laughs.

Just wait till one of them smuggles a nuke into Butcher Holler and find out where your smile is then  :mrgreen:

Fat chance of them delivering one there tho...

Quote from: maximusotter2.5 million four foot tall underfed troops and a missile system that could barely make it from my house to the nearest strip mall. Ooooh, scary!


/me points and laughs.

Launch capabilities are a local threat to the pacific rim and a global economic risk and nothing to do with the US.  You guys will just eventually be taken out by a dirty bomb, a virus release or more likely the sheer body mass of your population causing the earth to cave in.  For the rest of us its a problem even though we cant be hit either just because of the impending strength of China and the existing financial strength of Japan.  If they did do something silly to piss off Japan or even cause them to start arming again then the worlds economy would change dramatically.

As china is ramping up to overtake the US in the near future having an uncontrollable ally that close to them (that they are pretty much forced to defend at this stage) could wreck their relations with everyone around them is a big problem for all of us.


As for the US...you guys are *ed anyway but it wont come as a missile.  When you do get hit itll just be a dirty bomb or a virus release as its so much easier to get them in than build an ICBM warhead and launch it over the poles and down to you lot past a lot of sites in Europe which are going to have basic anti missile defense and early warning capabilities.  Just check what %age of the crates in your ports are actually inspected and you do the maths.  Its something stupidly low like 3%.  I wouldnt worry about missiles and defense networks in your place.

Quote from: maximusotter2.5 million four foot tall underfed troops and a missile system that could barely make it from my house to the nearest strip mall. Ooooh, scary!


/me points and laughs.

exactly the opinions put forward before Vietnam, and Somalia for a more recent example.  The US military may be rich in numbers, but with the exception of the central core of specialists its not that great.  Especially when you speak to people who have done manouvers against them.  They dont understand the concept of surprise, or the idea that every so often a smaller force on well prepared ground will beat a much bigger enemy.  

Quotemore likely the sheer body mass of your population causing the earth to cave in.

NK are like "we got a big stick, give us more stuff or well waggle it around again." They have a dire economy, they dont do self-sufficenchy & rely on external aid to feed people and ensure the survival of the regime.

Quote from: SteveFor more likely the sheer body mass of your population causing the earth to cave in.

roflmalofla x 2 !

ahhh, there just flexing there muscles, no-one is stupid enough to launch a nuke on any other nuclear power...... any nuclear power that identifies an incoming nuke is going to throw everything they have at the aggressor.... if only to stop them doing it again.... its a no-win situation and everyone knows it

Exactly. Its the equivalent of putting a sock in your pants.