Tekforums

There might be hope for America yet :)

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/04/us/politics/04elect.html?em&ex=1199595600&en=d06937348fc56133&ei=5087%0A
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7170954.stm

Obama - 37.6%
Edwards - 29.75%
Clinton - 29.47%

By a clear 8% no less. This could really get the momentum going. Clinton is pinned to take the big states on Super Tuesday (NY, California), although if Obama carries some of the other early states (New Hampshire next Tuesday) he can probably go on to take California.

Itll be interesting to see if Huckabee can maintain momentum. If he wins the Republican nomination theres a good chance well see Michael Bloomberg come in as a 3rd party candidate with his $1Bn war chest.

My housemate wants Hilary to win. I want Obama.

Ive read Dreams of my Father and Im half way through The Audacity of Hope.

He just seems so switched on to doings things differently, compared to the partisan crap of the last few decades.  Itll make a nice change to actually have a US president who can speak like a person in his position should.

Have to admit though I worry of another Kennedy style situation with asssssinations. The closer he gets to winning the reality will sink in to white supremists that were approaching their first black president.

Poor America Black people have a sh*t record, all of Africa is Fu***d now.

look at Kenya.

Obama will win, because of the black vote, then it will get tribal, like Kenya is experiencing now.

huh?

lol Privateer what are you on about :)

Totally pro Obama although shocked hilary rolled in third for the democrats.  Shell stand a better chance in New Hampshire I guess, so will see how Obama does there.  The guys amazingly inspirational tbh.  His speach writers are simply amazing as well.  Hes going to be Kennedy level popular if he gets it and keeps those speech writers!

I made a donation to Obama a while back which got my bank accounts frozen when it was cashed as withdrew money in 3 countries within 24 hours.  Its a conspiracy I tells ya!

me jumping the gun, getting confused.

Great if the US gets a black president or a female one but is it smart if they want to beat the republicans ? and they get a baptist president instead .

(http://img246.imageshack.us/img246/5371/blackobama2008jy6.jpg)

The comment about Kenya might not be far off, I can imagine the South USA voters being incredibly unhappy if either Obama or Clinton got in, they are reactionary and idiotic enough to cause problems should the democrats get in.

Not sure if this is the best move from the democrats, after Bush it would be hard not to win, but they are trying their best to lose it by using a "political statement" as their choice for candidate.

That said after Bush might be the only chance they may get to do it as well :D

theres almost no way the democrats can lose this election tbh after the war.  The evangelical leader s their best shot but its basically either Obama or Hilary wholl be the next president.

Most people backing Hilary to win though.  The Obama camps getting a ground swell of <40 year olds whove never voted before or been active which may mean he can overturn the predictions.

It is going to be near impossible for a republican to win so its one of those two.

FYI - Obama may be black but its not a statement thing imo.  He genuinely is one of the best politicians Ive ever seen.  Even if he was purple.

I really hope so and I take Obama rather than Hillary for sure but it is america and one cannot be sure of a democratic win even if they do win ;)

blah blah, what does this mean for the UK?

(Yup I dont care about anyone else :D )

I agree that Obama is a very genuine intelligent man and probably the best choice as the next president. It doesnt change the fact that it will be a HUGE leap in American politics for him to become president. There are alot of predjudiced people in America who are borderline voters. They may be pushed to Republican if the other option is a black middle aged man as apposed to a white middle aged man. Same can be said for white middled aged woman compared to a white middle aged man.

They may not be trying to make a statement with the two main candidates, but by having them a statement is being put across to the swing vote.

Should be interesting in California this year

:D

Quote from: White Giantblah blah, what does this mean for the UK?

(Yup I dont care about anyone else :D )

It means one of the most eloquent and intelligent presidents the US has had for a while who can also speak with charisma and has some clear convictions.

If youre anti war he was one of the few who stood against it throughout.

Basically hes not a muppet which when youre talking about the leader of the free world then it makes the world a safer place.  Internationally hes big on:

* energy independence (read oil and signing up to environmental summits)
* hes opened up full disclosure of all spending by the government which means the true figures for unemployment and spending are shown which directly changes the worlds stockmarkets
* He is pushing for religious arguments for bills/laws to have to be justified to all faiths without using just christian/whatever justification.  i.e. no more anti evolution/creationism nonsense unless it has some basis of common sense.
* Hes aware of countries outside of the US

Seriously if youve not heard this guy speak go watch some of his speaches on youtube or his website.  Any of them will do tbh.  This is the guy me and Maximusotter were raving about 2 years ago when he was made a senator.  We both reckoned he would be the most amazing president the US has ever had but would never stand for years.  Dont think anyone expected him to go from senator to presidential candidate this quickly.


If he gets it hes going to shake the US.  But tbh a woman is going to be a crazy change for the US as thats a first for them too.



For anyone whos not seen him yet:

Meet Obama: http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid900881681/bclid900480414/bctid422561644

just view any of those vids

a black man or a white woman

what a choice for the US

Surely its the best person for the job irrespective of their sex or colour.

I think that his newness might not be a god thing for him though. His ideas and beliefs might not be all that he says they are. Time will tell I suppose, either well see him lead the world into a new dawn of war or hell be the best president the USA has ever had, watch this space.... hes not won yet.

Obama has ambition and ability, I dont think anyone with an ounce of intelligence denies that, following the incumbent it might be a refreshing change, allowing the USA to regain so much of the credibility that it has slowly lost over the last 7 years.

Cheers
Tongy

Cant we just level it?

Quote from: EagleCant we just level it?

I say we take off and nuke the site from orbit. Its the only way to be sure.

Quote from: White Giantblah blah, what does this mean for the UK?

(Yup I dont care about anyone else :D )

Quite a bit, but only in getting Bush out and hopefully someone more competent in. Mind, it would be difficult to find someone less competent.

Quote from: TongySurely its the best person for the job irrespective of their sex or colour.

This is one job that you probably dont know how good the person is going to be until they are elected. Really its down to who American public opinion thinks is the best for the job, which is totally different from the actual best person.

thats not my opinion tongy, im just saying that itll be a hard choice for (some) yanks given the culture of the states

Quote from: Eddthats not my opinion Tongy, im just saying that itll be a hard choice for (some) yanks given the culture of the states

Edd, youre right. The American public vote for whom they think is the best in that position, for sure. However the popular vote hasnt always worked in the past has it JWB 00 fr example, where the amount of electoral vote outweighs the actual popular vote.

Obama represents the USAs only real chance (imho) of being taken seriously in the next decade. He represents integrity and the closest thing they have to honesty they have. Clinton is a battle-axe, a war horse with more experience than capability, imho.

The rebublicans are not likely to win this one due to Bush and his approach to world affairs, so theyd best sit back and place a wager on the most likely democrat.

Cheers
Tongy

Clinton is a known item though, there is the option to go for someone they know rather than someone they dont.

OTOH her past may play against her with the Yanks.

Bill Clinton in the white house again!  :shock:  :mrgreen:

Plays - Bill Clinton - Whip It Out.mp3

Looks like Obama may be ahead in total votes at this point

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7173183.stm

But is the US ready for a black President? They will only find out on election day, and providing a sniper/assassin doesnt get to him.

Just watched yesterdays debate, much better format - closer to a free for all ;)

Dems debate:
http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=ABC+New+Hampshire+Democratic+Debate+-+1%2F5%2F08&so=1&sitesearch=

Reps debate:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3554557223000413568&q=abc+debate+complete&total=19&start=0&num=10&so=1&type=search&plindex=1

personally i loved bill clinton, having clinton back in the white house can only be a good thing :D

however i do like obama he seems to have his head screwed on properly. Ive got a feeling if clinton gets in this time then obama wont get another chance

The whole election is decided by 3 swing states. Totally pointless. EG here in PA they will never elect a republican so its pointless even having the vote.

Seems like non of them are paying any attention the Iowa farmers.

(http://img.timeinc.net//time/cartoons/20080104/cartoons_01.jpg)

Quote from: SamThe whole election is decided by 3 swing states. Totally pointless. EG here in PA they will never elect a republican so its pointless even having the vote.

The whole American voting system needs looking at. Some form of proportional voting in each state would be better than their present first past the post gets everything.

It looks like its going to be Obama again tonight in New Hampshire if exit polls are anything to go by.  And by a massive margin as well! 4-13% with widest margins of error.  :O

Heres hoping

Quote from: SteveFIt looks like its going to be Obama again tonight in New Hampshire if exit polls are anything to go by.  And by a massive margin as well! 4-13% with widest margins of error.  :O

Heres hoping

Tonight? Isnt the NH Primary tomorrow night with results expected just past midnight our time?

CNN poll says hes got a double digit lead.

yeah - sorry its cause its still 7pm yesterday in Boston and been on the phone to Vegas all day (CES is up and running).  Its about 30 hours from now so pick a timezone :)

Heh, would appear its not quite the done deal yet with Obama - although -3% in what I would perceive as a "Hilary"-ish state might not be too bad

Well its far too earlier to state that anyone is a done deal.

Still a strong showing, although if he had won it wouldve given him the momentum he needs to take the bigger states.

As it stands right now, he probably has more delegates between the two states that Clinton does.

Id be suprised if he doesnt take SC.

Quote from: SteveFIt looks like its going to be Obama again tonight in New Hampshire if exit polls are anything to go by.  And by a massive margin as well! 4-13% with widest margins of error.  :O

Heres hoping

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7179342.stm

A lot of people have egg on their faces, Hilary Clinton and John McCain  takes New Hampshire!

I wonder if he owns the company that makes the oven chips...

The US exit polls really are crap lol.

Whats the point in a poll that says Obama will win by 10% with a 4% margin of error in the poll.  Then he loses by a tiny bit.  Thats not a 4% margin of error in the poll its a 10%+ margin of error!  Not sure why they bother :)

The smear and fear spin has started, there is e-mails going around that tell about Obamas muslim background and muslim schools he attended and that this is the muslim worlds way to destroy the US from whithin.

What else would you expect from any political group? Its either a Christian group or a Republican one, probably both.

They even say "check snopes it is true" who is sponsoring snopes ?

Sure those of you who are keeping track saw Clinton won Nevada 51% to Obamas 45%. Split the delegates it seems, although a public victory for Clinton.


He gave one hell of a speech yesterday:
Text (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/printpage/?url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/01/the_great_need_of_the_hour.html)
Video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kf0x_TpDris)

I have said it was a shame that Obama hadnt split the ticket with Clinton on this, would have put him in a perfect position to run in eight years.

Beeb going on about the victory

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7198564.stm

Then theres the primaries in South Carolina and Florida, followed up by the 22 states voting on Super Tuesday.

Still could go either way, the southern states could go Obama with the black vote or might go Clinton with the white vote.

Florida looks like McCain and Clinton again. Its now a two horse race in each of the camps, with Rudy Giuliani and John Edwards both pulling out.

http://www.tekforums.co.uk/posts/reply/30/10803.page

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7218848.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7218848.stm

It was always split between Obama and Clinton. I live in a democrat state and everyone here wants one of those two to win.

Florida and Michigan will play an interesting roll. Essentially theyre just beauty contests as the DNC stripped them of all delegates as they moved their primaries forward. The candidates pledged not to campaign in those states, with Obama and Edwards taking their names off the ballot in Michigan. With Clinton being the only major player (and the national front runner) youd think from a popular vote perspective shed win a landslide (regardless of how meaningless it is (at the time))? Nope, she won 55% with uncommited coming in at 40%.

Where ever Obama has been to campaign his numbers have risen quite steadily, but he hasnt been to Florida or Michigan, so the numbers stayed the same in general. Now as mentioned before this was at the request of the DNC and the first four states who asked the candidates to sign a pledge saying they wouldnt campaign there.


Heres the dillema; for Dems Michigan is a must win state in a general election and Florida is a major swing state. If the DNC dont eventually seat delegations from those two states then its political suicide and theres little chance of Dems winning the states in November (plenty of damage has already been done in this sense). With the race between Clinton and Obama being so close, especially after his larger than predicted win in South Carolina (+27%) and so many major endorsements flying in (three Kennedys, Gov of Kansas all this week alone plus more), hes starting to pick up some real momentum after the mud slinging match between Nevada and SC primaries. The Clinton name has been somewhat tarnished by Bills antics and Hillary giving the impression to woman that she needs her man to run the show in SC. Running upto Super Tuesday, Obama with his new found momentum will be much closer to Clinton delegate wise - I dont think hell win the major states (besides Illiniois) but as the DNC split delegates proportionally instead of winner takes all it wont matter. Not many people are expecting a clear front running coming out of Super Tuesday which means it could all still be up in the air by the time we reach the convention in Denver in August.

Then it becomes 1968 all over again with a floor fight for the nomination at the convention. (Argueably its also the year the Dems lost their way and began a pretty much non-stop succession of Republicans). If the number of delegates between the two candidates is quite close then two factors will be important:

1) Who Edwards pledges his 50 odd delegates towards. (Clintonll offer him what ever he wants to get those, even the VP ticket. Not that Obama wouldnt as well but I think shed be more pushing. Then again hes more alligned with Obama).

2) If the Clintons persuade the DNC to seat the delegations from Florida and Michigan which would essentially hand her the nomination.

Obama and his supporters will argue (quite rightly IMHO) that the Clintons stole the nomination as they never campaigned in those states due to promises made... but as mentioned before not seating them at all could hand the election to the Republicans, especially if McCain is nominated, which lets face it is more than likely.

You expect the 08 election to be a cake walk for Dems with the last 8 years and if it was anyone but McCain it probably would be, except he appeals to Liberals and Independents, hes a war hero with a record of bipartasianship and has a lot more experience than any of the Dem candidates, which flies in the face of Hillarys experience line. No way she can use that in a a national campaign against him.

Also Hillary is far to polarising. If you want to energise the Republican base nominate her and itll be a very hard fight for the Dems. Obama has his failings but if anything hell bring Republicans and Independents over.

Quote from: SamIt was always split between Obama and Clinton. I live in a democrat state and everyone here wants one of those two to win.

Its almost certainly a democrat win this time round.

It just depends if the republicans realise this and vote for Obama in order to stop it being Hilary.  From their point of view Hilary Clinton has to be the devil.  From a democratic standpoint Hilary or Obama would probably work with a slight bias towards Hilary.

Quote from: SteveF

Quote from: SamIt was always split between Obama and Clinton. I live in a democrat state and everyone here wants one of those two to win.

Its almost certainly a democrat win this time round.

I suspect it might be closer than you think on that front.

Perhaps but the republicans are taking a fairly massive hit over the war.  Its unusual for a party to stay in power after an unpopular war.  The amount of candidates running under the word change is a hint how much theyre all trying to distance themselves from it.  Thats going to be hard for the Republican party.

Weve reached super Tuesday, byt it cant be super for all the remaining contestants in the US battle. Looking decidedly uncertain for Obama and Clinton, and, although McCain does seem to have an advantage, the TV reporters arent betting either way.