Author Topic: Shares...F@@K!  (Read 133762 times)

  • Offline Dave

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Re: Shares...F@@K!
Reply #225 on: April 10, 2013, 21:09:55 PM
haha no - haven't taken a punt on bitcoins... I still reckon you should find a way to short them at some point though :D

Size you're trading doesn't matter too much - costs can still be high - I wouldn't be opening a particularly big account, wouldn't be scalping but I also wouldn't be taking directional punts rather I'd need to be able to execute orders across two or more products... so really need to be able to join the queue and wait for a fill on at least one leg or have resting limit orders further up and down the ladder. bund/bobl/schatz in the morning maybe US treasuries in the evening... pnl per round turn is going to be less than the value a tick - they're way way too efficient and so adding an extra spread which *has* to be crossed would make it pretty much unfeasible to even attempt to profit.

Spread betting is fine for the odd punt... as you do have a whole variety of markets to chose from - if you're going to be betting on some stock one week an index then next, maybe some commodities etc.. then great.  If you're systematically trying to 'trade' a particular product even over a few days its still very dependent on your average pnl per round turn or per bet... going back to the FTSE example say you were trading a similar size in GBP there as you had on yesterday in the S&P/ES - assume 10 lots for example perhaps, say you placed 10 bets across the course of a month... that's still £800 a month extra in costs or £9,600 across the year (and that is being generous assuming execution of market orders, stop orders etc.. are going to be the same and the spread isn't going to get skewed against you). For that to be worth while you'd have to have otherwise had a capital gains tax liability of greater than those costs of £9600 - assume a CGT rate of 28% on amounts above £10,600... a profit of £44,885 would leave you with a CGT liability of £9600 and a net Pnl of £35,285

So at a spread betting firm @£100 a point - over 120 trades across a year you'd therefore need to have made greater than £35,285 for the tax advantages of spread betting to outweigh the extra costs - this isn't necessarily unfeasible. So in that scenario it might be worth while for some people such as yourself- for most people though it likely isn't.

The majority of clients of the firm you're using trade at £3-£5 a point so the tax benefits are unlikely to apply... but they still have to put up with the higher costs (then again they're trading at a size less than the tick size of 1 lot). I guess the other scenario where its useful is where you're unable to fund an account to trade equities or futures etc..

Obviously decrease the frequency of the trades/bets while increasing the amount of pnl per trade and the costs become less significant... increase the frequency of trades/bets and you get to the scalping scenario from earlier @10 lots you'd be looking at £4000 a day in costs to overcome there so basically impossible/blow the account up in a matter of a few days. Then again there are finance charges to contend with too when increasing the time frame.

So yeah I do agree that they have some use - basically for people who are taking a few directional punts over a few days which - presumably what you did yesterday with that S&P short etc.. the tax advantage is there if you're very good at that - I don't think I'd be good enough personally which is why I'm not looking at forecasting/taking directional bets. A lot of people who do that sort of thing tend to have fairly hefty swings in their pnl too and the small sample size of trades mean its going to take a while to really establish if any positive pnl can be attributed to a particular edge or whether its just the result of variance/noise.
Last Edit: April 10, 2013, 21:25:32 PM by Dave #187;

  • Offline Sam

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Re: Shares...F@@K!
Reply #226 on: April 10, 2013, 21:21:53 PM
So yeah I do agree that they have some use - basically for people who are taking a few directional punts over a few days which - presumably what you did yesterday with that S&P short etc.. the tax advantage is there if you're very good at that

Wasn't in that too long. Am back short now though AH.

  • Offline Dave

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Re: Shares...F@@K!
Reply #227 on: April 10, 2013, 21:24:20 PM
was about to say.... hope you got out of it before what happened today...

  • Offline Sam

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Re: Shares...F@@K!
Reply #228 on: April 10, 2013, 21:34:42 PM
Bit mad now, market's gone insane.

Re: Shares...F@@K!
Reply #229 on: April 19, 2013, 09:42:07 AM
BLVN RNS
Market is Bear atm, when it turns Bull its going to gush.

  • Offline zpyder

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Re: Shares...F@@K!
Reply #230 on: April 19, 2013, 21:02:43 PM
What are the thoughts on Cyan and the constant dilution of the shares? Is it a way of them not paying their staff, instead of bonuses give them shares...or is it them loading the shares in anticipation of them increasing significantly.

It seems every week I get at least one email saying they've issued another million shares to their directors. not sure what to make of it other than it seems to be keeping the share price fairly stable.

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  • Offline Clock'd 0Ne

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Re: Shares...F@@K!
Reply #231 on: April 19, 2013, 22:49:28 PM
Its both really, it seems. If I was working for the company and expecting it to go boom soon I'd want the shares too.

  • Offline Sam

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Re: Shares...F@@K!
Reply #232 on: April 20, 2013, 22:51:53 PM
BLVN RNS
Market is Bear atm, when it turns Bull its going to gush.

BEAR ? You mad f**k. Market is the most bullish been in years. Had a slight pullback this week and the rest of the year been just silly bullish.

  • Offline Sam

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Re: Shares...F@@K!
Reply #233 on: April 20, 2013, 22:59:28 PM
was about to say.... hope you got out of it before what happened today...

Did you like my short at the highs? Few k there. Long DAX now.

  • Offline Dave

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Re: Shares...F@@K!
Reply #234 on: April 21, 2013, 01:01:23 AM
was about to say.... hope you got out of it before what happened today...

Did you like my short at the highs? Few k there. Long DAX now.

I wouldn't personally want to hold a position overnight let alone over a weekend....

Still if you were short on the 11th then I guess you caught a nice move over the following couple of days.... Out of interest - have you ever looked at prospreads? - its run by the same parent company as capital spreads and might be more suitable for the sort of size you're trading... its basically DMA (albeit with a few 'features' that mean it isn't quite) but you'd get tighter spreads & still retain the tax advantages... while removing some conflicts of interest.

Costs are bit higher than with a regular FCM but if you're holding over a few days and making rather a lot as you seem to be then it's probably a good option in comparison given the tax advantage.
Last Edit: April 21, 2013, 01:06:42 AM by Dave #187;

Re: Shares...F@@K!
Reply #235 on: April 21, 2013, 09:25:09 AM
BLVN RNS
Market is Bear atm, when it turns Bull its going to gush.

BEAR ? You mad f**k. Market is the most bullish been in years. Had a slight pullback this week and the rest of the year been just silly bullish.

AIM is bear. Lots of good news the last week & little movement. Go look at XEL 135 back in october, release news that they have double the oil than they first thought & its still barely over a quid, when it should be two. BLVN very much the same and qute a few more I can think of.

Re: Shares...F@@K!
Reply #236 on: April 21, 2013, 09:25:55 AM
What are the thoughts on Cyan and the constant dilution of the shares? Is it a way of them not paying their staff, instead of bonuses give them shares...or is it them loading the shares in anticipation of them increasing significantly.

It seems every week I get at least one email saying they've issued another million shares to their directors. not sure what to make of it other than it seems to be keeping the share price fairly stable.

Bit of both, company seems to be a bit skint & all its eggs in the one basket for TNEB. If they win the tender, then all good. If they lose it, then its prob bye bye to the company.

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  • Offline Clock'd 0Ne

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Re: Shares...F@@K!
Reply #237 on: April 21, 2013, 11:18:17 AM
They have a lot going on China too with areas like M2M as well but I agree with egg, the TNEB will be make or break for them (and those of us holding shares).

  • Offline Sam

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Re: Shares...F@@K!
Reply #238 on: April 21, 2013, 15:14:14 PM
BLVN RNS
Market is Bear atm, when it turns Bull its going to gush.

BEAR ? You mad f**k. Market is the most bullish been in years. Had a slight pullback this week and the rest of the year been just silly bullish.

AIM is bear. Lots of good news the last week & little movement. Go look at XEL 135 back in october, release news that they have double the oil than they first thought & its still barely over a quid, when it should be two. BLVN very much the same and qute a few more I can think of.

AIM doesn't work like the real markets. It's for gamble stocks like oil prospectors. You're not buying into a trend or following sentiment. You're buying stocks that you hope hit the jackpot (oil find, Indian deal, etc) or ones that you have knowledge on that the rest of the market doesn't yet.

  • Offline Sam

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Re: Shares...F@@K!
Reply #239 on: April 21, 2013, 15:16:03 PM
was about to say.... hope you got out of it before what happened today...

Did you like my short at the highs? Few k there. Long DAX now.

I wouldn't personally want to hold a position overnight let alone over a weekend....

Still if you were short on the 11th then I guess you caught a nice move over the following couple of days.... Out of interest - have you ever looked at prospreads? - its run by the same parent company as capital spreads and might be more suitable for the sort of size you're trading... its basically DMA (albeit with a few 'features' that mean it isn't quite) but you'd get tighter spreads & still retain the tax advantages... while removing some conflicts of interest.

Costs are bit higher than with a regular FCM but if you're holding over a few days and making rather a lot as you seem to be then it's probably a good option in comparison given the tax advantage.

Yeah I was short over last weekend and into this week. But as I say long DAX now. I don't know how much you think I put on or trade but saying a few pips here and there will make no difference to me. I have 5/pt long DAX, avg 7482. Will sell this week if it breaks 7550 or dump if it breaks 7420 on a broader US move down. How much will I save at Prospreads?

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